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Beltre Trade Possibility

So, I've been seeing Adrian Beltre's name come up from the NY media as a possible replacement for A-Rod.
Beltre's signed for 2 more years at 12 mil each. That's very reasonable for what he does. It seemed like a big contract at the time, but it's turning out to be rather precient. The M's don't need to dump his salary, so it would have to be a actual talent trade to get the second best position player on the team, especially since the M's have no immediate minor league infielders to replace him.

Who do they think the M's would take? As far as I can tell, the Yankees have no tradable players that match up with the M's(I'm asuming Phil Hughes, Cano and Wang aren't going anywhere). Am I missing someone? Are there some prospects ready to bump people out of their spots, or are there some personality problems that need to be moved?

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beltre
no way he has had 1 good year

by fuckarod on Nov 1, 2007 3:37 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

NOOOOOO!
Beltre sucks - one good season in a contract year.  He'd be a disaster.

by docgonzo on Nov 1, 2007 4:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The M's will take anyone for Beltre
because Beltre's contract is an albatross around their necks. Beltre hits like Tony Bastista but gets paid like Jeff Kent. The Yanks should stay far away from Beltre.

by Willton on Nov 1, 2007 5:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Actually, Beltre has been pretty good
the last couple of years, posting a 105 OPS+ in 06 and a 112 in 07. In addition, he has hit 51 HRs in the last two years, while playing half his games in Safeco, which kills right handed pull hitters.

Beltre was awful in 05, but was very very good in the second half of 06 and in all of 07. In fact, his numbers in 2007 were deflated because of a thumb injury suffered in early June. In May he put up a .306/.342/.577 line. Then, after the injury, during his first 17 games back he was awful, posting a .190/.239/.302 line.

But then, from July 1 to the end of the season, he went back to what he was doing in May, posting a .289/.332/.510 line in Safeco.

If you guys don't want a guy who when he was healthy hit .286/.332/.504 in Safeco, you're crazy. Again, he hit .286/.332/.504 in 132 games (i'm not counting the 17 games he played when he rushed back from the sprained thumb.

Anyways, we're not going to trade him, and I will be furious if we do.  

Visiting Mariners Fan

by dbroncos31 on Nov 1, 2007 8:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Keep talking up your player
No one's buying it. Ignoring the 17 games that you did is being willfully blind. You must take the good with the bad. Twelve million per year for an average player such as Beltre is an albatross.

by Willton on Nov 1, 2007 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah ok
a gold glove caliber 3B who puts up an above 800 OPS in Safeco despite playing 17 games with a sprained thumb. he sucks

Also, when i was talking about abreu, he made 3 mill more than Beltre, put up barely better numbers in an easier park to hit in (LH at NYY vs. RH at Safe) and did not play gold glove D.

therefore Beltre contract >>>>Abreu one.

Beltre may be overpaid (i dont think so) but there is no way his contract is an albatross in today's MLB

Visiting Mariners Fan

by dbroncos31 on Nov 2, 2007 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bad comparison
Abreu is a free agent at the Yankees' option. Beltre is locked in for two more years. Abreu used to be an excellent hitter for years, and has since declined. Beltre never was one. The amount Abreu has been paid was respective of his past performance encompasing many years. Beltre's salary based on his performance in one year: 2004.

Beltre's defense is overstated. He was decidedly average with the leather this year. (FRAA = 2)

Beltre's value is wrapped up entirely in his ability to hit for power, as he's league-average in hitting for average and has little semblence of plate discipline.

I never said that Beltre sucked. I said that he was average. He had a good year this year, but I expect him to fall back to his 2006 numbers next year.

Perhaps I don't know the value of a dollar anymore in the MLB, but when Beltre signed that contract it was an albatross. It may not be anymore because of inflation, but it certainly was back in 2005.

by Willton on Nov 2, 2007 2:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Please Explain....
why you expect Beltre for "fall back" next year? Is that based on any kind of statistical evidence or is just a "gut feeling" type of thing? His Age? That can't be it. Less familiar with the pitching? errr no.

Besides you cannot just cite numbers without putting them into context. The guy put up an .800+ OPS in a ballpark that is BRUTAL on right handers. Would have still been average if his OPS were .880 in a neutral ballpark?

As for his defense, go ahead and believe what one metric tells you, and yeah, it probably deflates him a bit due to some errors, but the guy makes jaw-dropping plays at 3B. His arm is probably the best infield arm in the AL and his ability to charge balls up the line and make throws while paralell to the ground (happens more often that you might think) is the best that I've ever seen. His ability to make literally perfect throws while completely out of whack is really good.

Lastly, Beltre is all heart. Beltre and Jose Guillen were the heart of the 2007 M's. Beltre has no problem at all blowing up a SS on a DP or mashing a catcher at the plate. The guy gives it all out there.

He's overpaid a bit, yeah, but he's also a pretty good player so it's not as if the guy is a stiff making tons of cash. The incesent bashing of him for failing to live up to that 2004 season again has actually made him a pretty underrated player.

by PLU Tim on Nov 2, 2007 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good for him
It sounds like Bavasi sure got a steal! Go ahead and keep him.
Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Nov 2, 2007 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Who said that?
I certainly didn't.

He's overpaid, but not by nearly as much as the MSM and group-thinkers would want you to believe.

by PLU Tim on Nov 2, 2007 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Park adjusted numbers are great
Beltre: 112 OPS+
Abreu: 114 OPS+

You can make the case that their nearly identical production makes Abreu overpaid, but he only made 13 mil last year to Beltre's 11.5.

Next year it will be 16 to 12, but Abreu has averaged a 122 OSP+ over the last 3 years.  Beltre has averaged 103.  I expect a rebound from Abreu despite his age (34).

Beltre will be 29-  he could maintain his OPS+ (his numbers have risen the last 3 years: 93, 105, 112).  But, I doubt he will improve it.  He's had 4 seasons below 100, 5 seasons above, and excepting his probably PED driven 163 in his contract year, he best seasons have been age 21 and age 28.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 2, 2007 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

RE: Please Explain....
why you expect Beltre for "fall back" next year? Is that based on any kind of statistical evidence or is just a "gut feeling" type of thing? His Age? That can't be it. Less familiar with the pitching? errr no.

Beltre hits an abnormaly high percentage of ground balls for a guy who slugged as much as he did this year. The kind of power that Beltre exhibitted usually requires a higher percentage of fly balls or line-drives. In addition, Beltre's K/BB rate is still quite high, and that usually does not bode well for his future. At best he'll become Joe Carter if he gains more power; at worst he'll become Tony Batista.

Besides you cannot just cite numbers without putting them into context. The guy put up an .800+ OPS in a ballpark that is BRUTAL on right handers. Would have still been average if his OPS were .880 in a neutral ballpark?

Probably not, but you're assuming that his OPS would have been .880 in a neutral park. As it turns out, his OPS in away games was only .850. But I'm willing to bet that he would have kept his giant platoon split regardless of where he played.

As for his defense, go ahead and believe what one metric tells you, and yeah, it probably deflates him a bit due to some errors, but the guy makes jaw-dropping plays at 3B. His arm is probably the best infield arm in the AL and his ability to charge balls up the line and make throws while paralell to the ground (happens more often that you might think) is the best that I've ever seen. His ability to make literally perfect throws while completely out of whack is really good.

We've heard the same thing said about Derek Jeter's defense. "Oh, he's great when going to his right and throwing off-balance in the hole." That's great, but what matters is not how many jaw-dropping plays a player makes, but how many plays that player makes total compared to total chances. Beltre does have a rep for a good glove, and he certainly had it last year. This year, not so much. As Charlie Wilmoth says over at BucsDugout (yes, I'm also a Pirates fan), there's a difference between what an exciting player looks like, and what a good player looks like.

Lastly, Beltre is all heart. Beltre and Jose Guillen were the heart of the 2007 M's. Beltre has no problem at all blowing up a SS on a DP or mashing a catcher at the plate. The guy gives it all out there.

That's great. I'm sure that makes him fun to watch, kinda like how pro wrestling is fun to watch. However, if you like him so much, you may be singing a different tune when he gets injured doing that kind of stuff, especially the mowing down of catchers. Regardless, talent is far more important than whatever value "heart" provides; otherwise teams would be falling over themselves trying to sign Sean Casey and Ty Wigginton.

Look, I'm not saying that Beltre is a bad player. I'm saying he's an average player. Perhaps he's worth the money he's getting right now. But you are WAY overstating his value.

by Willton on Nov 2, 2007 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

and paying 12 mill for this kind of production
is not bad at all...

Basically he put up similar numbers to Abreu (lower OBP, higher SLG) in Safeco for 3 million dollars less. (.814 OPS vs. .801)

His contract is nothing close to an albatross. the media always talks about how it was a terrible contract, but for a great fielding .800 OPS guy, 12 million is nothing.

Now Richie Sexson...there's a damn albatross

Visiting Mariners Fan

by dbroncos31 on Nov 1, 2007 8:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well we disagree
  1. Abreu is overpaid.  Many on the blog do not want to pick up the option because it's too much scratch.
  2. OBP is a VERY important number.  More important than BA or SLG.  So, Abreu is MUCH better.
Let's hit the gym and get ready for spring.

by Cbeck3 on Nov 1, 2007 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep....
Many of the "net" M's fans ranted and ranted about how the Sexson contract was going to be brutal and many people laughed at us during the 2005 season.

Now, it's quite a different story.

by PLU Tim on Nov 1, 2007 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Beltre from an M's fan....
Granted that the M's are a pretty mediocre team and all...but...

Adrian Beltre is the second best position player on the team and there really isn't a close 3rd.

This idea that Beltre is some kind of a one year wonder is a fallacy that needs to die. Beltre had a few good years in LA when is was barely out of his teen years.

For the last year and a half Beltre has been a FANTASTIC player for the M's. His defense is ridiculous at 3B and he's been able to put up very solid numbers in a ballpark that chews up and spits out right handed hitters.

Another thing about Beltre is that he isn't even 30. The guy could have a few more monster years left in him.

Other reasons to love Beltre:

  • He once choked Ryan Franklin during a game
  • Only hitter that regularly (like every at bat) appeals his own check swings!
  • Happy dance everytime he takes a pitch.
All that being said, Beltre isn't some guy that you'll pick up for AAA fodder. Seattle has no reason at all to consider trading him. They would pretty much have to be blown away with an offer. Especially when you consider that he's probably the signing that has kept Bill Bavasi as the GM.

by PLU Tim on Nov 1, 2007 11:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the perspective, Tim
Nice to get a bead on these sorts of deals from the other end.
I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Nov 1, 2007 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He was a one year wonder
Just look at the stats - Beltre hit .334 with 48 HR, 121 RBI and had an OBP of .388 in his contract year.  Nothing he did before or since came close to that kind of production.

by docgonzo on Nov 2, 2007 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty Narrow Definition...
of "one year wonder" that you have there.

Just because he had one season where his numbers greatly exceeded the rest doesn't make him a "one year wonder"

The guy has been a productive player in multiple seasons. Quit acting as if the guy is Bob Hamelin.

by PLU Tim on Nov 2, 2007 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How is that narrow?
He had one phenomenal year; the rest are mediocre at best.  Ergo, he's a one year wonder (so far at least).  I don't understand your objection.

by docgonzo on Nov 2, 2007 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's simply not true...
CONTEXT. You ahve to put his numbers in CONTEXT.

You can't just look at them at face value and call them "mediocre at best"

  1. A couple of his "mediocre" seasons in LA were likely due to almost dying due to a botched apendectomy.
  2. His production relative to his age was really really good.
  3. The second half of 2006 and all of 2007 were not "mediocre at best" production after you adjust for his home ballpark. This really can't be understated. Right handers in Safeco field may experience the most drastic park effect in baseball (I don't know that for sure, but I'd imagine that it's up there).
Outside of Arod, I can't think of another AL 3B that I would rather have.

Calling him a "one year wonder" implies that he's never been a good player outside of one season and that is just simply false. Really the only thing that he doesn't do well is draw walks.  

by PLU Tim on Nov 2, 2007 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

3B
Gordon
Fields
Figgins
Lowell
Glaus
Iwamura
Beltre
Chavez
Blake
Mora
Inge
Punto
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 2, 2007 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A couple things
First, the appendectomy really did nothing to affect his overall numbers - 2002 was quite similar to 2001 (before the surgeries) and 2003 (after the surgeries).  His production relative to his age was good in 2000 (the only other year worth even talking about), but otherwise has been, as I've said, mediocre.  And talking about his second half surges really mean nothing because he does that almost every year after starting off pathetically slow.  Who cares if he bats .280+ after the break when he hits below .200 the first half?

If you're so high on Beltre - and you obviously are - why are you so encouraging in him possibly becoming a dreaded Yankee?

by docgonzo on Nov 2, 2007 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not...
I simply defending him as a player. He's a quite good one.

I'd rather him not become a Yankee

by PLU Tim on Nov 2, 2007 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Other Preferable 3B's
Outside of Arod, I can't think of another AL 3B that I would rather have.

Alex Gordon, Evan Longoria, Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis, Chone Figgins, Hank Blalock. The first two have much better projectability than Beltre, and the last four were all better hitters than Beltre this past season (Youkilis played first, but he's a 3B by trade). And that's only AL 3B's. There are many better 3B's in the NL.

Beltre had a VORP of 28.3 last year. It's respectable, but it's still average.

Hell, if he's given enough playing time, I'm willing to bet that Wilson Betemit would provide the same amount of value as Beltre.

by Willton on Nov 2, 2007 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I take Figgins back
Figgins is brutal with the leather. That probably drops his value below that of Beltre.

by Willton on Nov 2, 2007 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh come on....
If you're going to cite guys like Longoria and Gordon then you may as well start listing AA players.

You can't tell me that you'd take those guys as players over Beltre if you had to win a game today.

Two years from now, sure.

by PLU Tim on Nov 2, 2007 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

90 RBIs/year
is certainly respectable #s. The problem with Beltre is his contract got way inflated by one great year. And now he's going to be deemed an under-performer b/c he ain't living up to the salary.
I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Nov 2, 2007 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Take 2004 out of the equation
and those RBIs drop to 74/year.

by docgonzo on Nov 2, 2007 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

maybe
but these M's fans haven't been sent here from the front office to try to promote a trade. I'll take the word of 2 visiting M's fans. They see him 162 games, whereas we see him when he plays the Yankees or is on sportscenter. He had a terrible first year with the Mariner's, but it certainly seems his numbers improved dramatically atleast in the second half of this year. I've seen the cannon he has from 3rd base, although I don't have a perspective on his range or glovework. I'm willing to believe these M's fans though. I don't know if I would want Beltre (especially because I don't want to trade anything good for him), but I am atleast willing to consider the possibility.
"It's great to be young and a Yankee"

by stillmonster on Nov 2, 2007 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I live in LA
so I've had plenty of exposure to him when he was a Dodger.  He was mediocre then at best; hasn't been much better since, far as I can tell.

by docgonzo on Nov 2, 2007 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

he did what everyone does
juiced up during his contract year. shit we all would too.

by Soriano NY 12 on Nov 2, 2007 1:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I do not want the M's to trade Beltre
No M's fan who knows his stuff would want to trade Beltre unless the trade was ridiculously one-sided. He's a guy who will put up a .280/.335/.505 line next year while playing 80 games in Safeco. He will also play outstanding D.

Econolodge, you pointed out that that his feilding this year seemed to be only slightly above average. Yeah he made a bunch of errors, but he had great range and this makes him one of the best 3B in the AL. Also, you can't just look at 1 fielding metric.

Adrian Beltre is one of the top 3B in the AL, and I am quite happy to have him on my favorite team

Visiting Mariners Fan

by dbroncos31 on Nov 2, 2007 4:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

You can have him
No M's fan who knows his stuff would want to trade Beltre unless the trade was ridiculously one-sided. He's a guy who will put up a .280/.335/.505 line next year while playing 80 games in Safeco. He will also play outstanding D.

Wow, that's a ballsy prediction. Mark it down, folks. You realize that 28 tends to be a peak year, and hitters don't tend to improve past it outside of fluky years, right?

Econolodge, you pointed out that that his feilding this year seemed to be only slightly above average. Yeah he made a bunch of errors, but he had great range and this makes him one of the best 3B in the AL. Also, you can't just look at 1 fielding metric.

Fine, we'll look at two:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=7&season=2007&seasonType=2&split=81 &sortColumn=zoneRating

Beltre ranked 4th among qualifying AL 3B in Zone Rating, which measures the number of balls fielded by a player in his designated zone. Check the link above: Beltre was marginally better than A-Rod in this respect, and considerably worse than Melvin Mora, Mike Lowell, and Brandon Inge. I guess he's not so "outstanding" after all.

Adrian Beltre is one of the top 3B in the AL, and I am quite happy to have him on my favorite team

If that is really true (define "top": Top 2? Top 3? Top 5?), then that says more about AL 3B's than it does about Beltre. Beltre wouldn't even sniff the top 5 in the NL, as he's not nearly as good at David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, Chipper Jones, Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Braun, or Garrett Atkins. And personally, I think he's lesser of a player than A-Rod (obviously), Blalock, Lowell, and Youkilis (who will move to 3B eventually).

I'm sorry, but I just can't get excited about a guy who plays a corner position and can't walk more than 40 times a season.

by Willton on Nov 2, 2007 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Note on Zone Rating
Because the link only shows "qualified" 3B's, it lists only 9 players from the AL. Looking at unqualilfied 3B (those who did not tally enough innings to get Gold Glove consideration) Eric Chavez, Hank Blalock and Joe Crede all have better ZR's than Beltre.

by Willton on Nov 2, 2007 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How bout we look at UZR
UZR had Beltre at +14 runs per 150 games at the AS break. That, combined with his 28 runs above replacement, makes him a 4+ win per year player. For 12 million dollars, we are getting 4 wins. That's 3 million dollars a win, about a million less than the current free agent going rate.

Also, you looked at THT, but why did you avoid looking at out of zone plays? Beltre was the best 3B in the AL last year in out of zone balls.

Visiting Mariners Fan

by dbroncos31 on Nov 2, 2007 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't look at THT
I looked at ESPN. Check the link.

Where do you get your UZR numbers? And why did you only focus on his UZR at the AS break, not the whole season? Isn't that kind of disingenuous, considering Beltre plays the whole season, not just half of it? If you're going to make a point like this, you should disclose all of what you found.

As for the out of zone plays, shouldn't it matter that he's really good at out-of-zone plays yet not so good at in-zone plays? I mean, it's great that he can get balls that most 3B's can't get to, but if he can't get the balls that most 3B's can get to, don't those traits even eachother out?

by Willton on Nov 2, 2007 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

actually, I couldnt
find the UZR ratings for the entire season. I looked, but i could only find the ratings thru the AS break. and with THT, hes slightly below average on RZR and awesome on OOZ. which makes hiom a good defender. He takes hits and truns them into outs.
Visiting Mariners Fan

by dbroncos31 on Nov 2, 2007 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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