Prediction Thread:Yanks and Sox, Cubs and Rox

by stusviews on Oct 3, 2007 9:33 AM EDT Comment 17 comments

The Red Sox did the Yankees a big favor by choosing the Wednesday starting series. Now the Yankees only have to win one of the three games started by C.C. or Carmona as long as they pound Byrd and Westbrook. I think they'll pull out one of the first two and win in four. I expect a big start from Clemens on Sunday but the other of the Yankee Stadium game could be tense if Moose starts and a slugfest ensues. Hopefully Joba and Mo can get us through it.

I'm not sure why the Red Sox chose to face Lackey and Escobar twice particularly when the dropoff between the second and third pitcher is sharper for the Angels than the Sox. Still, I think the Sox will pull it out as the rest will help their tired bullpen. I expect this to be a very tight series unlike when these teams met in 2004.

In the NL, aka the AAAA league, the Tigers would be the favorite if they were there. I think the Dbacks need to win both of Webb's starts to even have a chance and since he will be going against Zambrano that's not a given. The Cubs lineup is peaking and the heart of the order, Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez is the best in the NL. Cubs in 4.

The Rockies-Phillies is the hardest one to call. Both teams are hot, have strong lineups and questionable pitching. I like the 2-4 starters for the Rockies better so I'll go with Colorado in 5.

Should be a blast!

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Predictions

The Sox offense is just not that good when they face decent pitching. They were shut down this year by pitchers like Kazmir, Wang, and Carmona, I don't see how they have a chance against Lackey and Escobar. Beckett can run hot and cold and Dice-K hit the wall. Angels in 4.
Yanks always do relatively better against superstar pitchers than against guys they've never seen before; that said, they haven't seen CC in 3 years. They'll lose first game and win the next 3; Yanks in 4.
I don't follow the NL as much. I just feel like the Dbacks have been overachieving similar to the Mariners before their collapse; I don't see how a team that gave up more runs than it scored can keep it up. Cubs sweep. (Did anyone notice that on the ESPN predictions, no one EVER calls a sweep? There were three just last year.)
While both teams are hot, I think the Rockies are hotter. Colorado in 5.
ALCS- Both LAA and NY are much better at home and LA has one extra home game, but I think NY will steal one out there. Yankees in 7.
NLCS- Cubs in 5.
WS- Yankees in 5. The AAAA league really isn't that good.

by SP on Oct 3, 2007 10:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lackey tends not to pitch well

at Fenway (he lost both games he pitched there this season and gave up 6 runs in the first inning his last start there) so Boston certainly has a "chance."

Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier. The cigars taste better. The trees are greener. --Billy Martin

by garp on Oct 3, 2007 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Plus

Dice K never faced LAA this year I don't think. And his numbers the first time he faces a team are very good.

I think at least one of the Fenway games will come down to which bridge to each team's closer performs better.

by matthaggs on Oct 3, 2007 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I actually think

the Angels are going to upset the Sox. The offense isn't legendary, but like last year's Tigers, I think people are underestimating them. Their pitching staff was second in the league in K's (Tampa Bay was first).

Of all the teams in the playoffs, the Angels struck out the least- by 100 times fewer. They have the third best OBP in the AL, and they can and will run- with a 71.6% success rate as a team.

The more I read about the more I think the connection between the pitching staff's K/9 and the offense's contact rate is the deciding factor in the playoffs.

As I've said in other threads I think Yankees will be the Indians in 4 because I have tickets to game 4.

The ALCS and the WS will all depend on the matchups and rest. But I am hoping that the Phillies make it- facing off with my friends would be too much fun.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Oct 3, 2007 12:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

that SB% sucks

"a 71.6% success rate as a team."

Which ranks 11th out of the 14 AL teams.
Boston is first.

"As I've said in other threads I think Yankees will be the Indians in 4 because I have tickets to game 4."

Well, we agree on something :) See you there.

by bobo on Oct 3, 2007 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have tickets to Game 4 as well!!!

woot woot

"The secret of managing is to keep the guys who hate you away from the guys who are undecided." -Casey Stengel

by bxgrl1 on Oct 3, 2007 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Phillies

should win...The Yanks need to hit, period....Forget the pitching for a moment...If they score some runs, they win. They will run like crazy on Cleveland's catcher, but have to get on base. And it will pick up the starters because they will score against us...So, to me the offense is the key...

by John Amato on Oct 3, 2007 2:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

A bit worrisome

That violates the old "pitching beats hitting" mantra. Not many teams slug their way through the playoffs- if your pitcher starts bad you can yank him quick and hope to come back, or at least have a new pitcher the next day, but if your bats are dead those are your bats for the game and/or series- no changing them.

by SP on Oct 3, 2007 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or all your pitchers go bad

and you burn out your bullpen by Game 2.

by detroit yankee on Oct 3, 2007 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Slightly off topic

but since this is a playoff thread...

Only one team that made the playoffs last year made the playoffs again this year: The Yanks.

You can spend the most money in your league, and have talented players, but if your GM doesn't do enough at midseason to bolster the roster, and if the manager loses control of his high priced players, then you become the New York Mets.

You can have the 4th highest payroll in MLB, but if your manager is rotten, and your GM is dumb enough to keep him, you cannot sustain success and you become the White Sox.

Whoever thought the Yankees would have the most stable GM / Manager combination in baseball?

Who knows how close they'll get to winning 11 games this fall, but those who constantly knock Torre need to look at the above paragraphs and be a little more grateful that #6 is still in charge here. And while Cashman took too many risks to open camp, he has done an awesome job re-modeling the major league team and the farm system on the fly.

Kudos to both.

by matthaggs on Oct 3, 2007 2:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I read in NY Times Today

that the Yankees win every series where they drop the first game and lose every series they win the first game.

I have no idea what to think about that. I don't want to lose the first game but if it ensures a series win, why not?

"The secret of managing is to keep the guys who hate you away from the guys who are undecided." -Casey Stengel

by bxgrl1 on Oct 3, 2007 2:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I was watching a dumb baseball movie

the other day, and a running gag they had was the play-by-play announcer reading off some crazy statistics, i.e., most strikeouts per inning by a lefty who played college ball south of the Mason-Dixon.

Some stats are just not that revealing.

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Oct 3, 2007 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

more and more

in real life (not a baseball movie) I listen to stupid announcers revealing some stat and I think, "WHAT? Who cares?? That isn't a stat, that's a person who has too much time on their hands researching things that no one cares about."

"The secret of managing is to keep the guys who hate you away from the guys who are undecided." -Casey Stengel

by bxgrl1 on Oct 3, 2007 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That

was no dumb MOVIE! I almost positive that was Major League. I love that movie lol. And that announcer is Rick Bucher (i think thats how you spell it) the hall of fame announcer for the Brewers.

Just a bit outside.

It is HIGH! It is FAR! It is! GOOONNEEE!!!

by yankeesRfirst on Oct 4, 2007 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bob Uecker

you can't get that name wrong, he's a legend

by miracle96 on Oct 4, 2007 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually,

I am embarrassed to admit I was watching Little Big League with my niece.

12 year-old inherits and then manages the Twins?

Not dumb, but clearly a Disney movie.

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Oct 4, 2007 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree on wanting the compressed series

I have more faith in our offense hitting Sabathia and Carbomb than I do in getting a quality start out of Mussina. Being able to rest Mo and Joba and roll with Wang-Pettitte-Clemens would have put us in a better position.

Fire Torre! Paul O'Neill for manager!

by tiyuri on Oct 3, 2007 4:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs