Discussion Point
I'd rather see the Yankees trade for a top-tier pitcher (Santana) than for a top-tier hitter (Cabrera). I'm only willing to trade one of the Trinity to acquire either.
Joba has the hype to be the centerpiece of a trade. While his potential matches that hype, his performance will not catch up for several years.
After pitching 112.1 innings in 2007, we can only count on him for about 140 innings in 2008, which means about 170 innings in 2009, and finally 200 innings in 2010.
Both Hughes and Kennedy are prepared to pitch 180 innings in 2008. That makes them more valuable than Joba.
In considering what is best for the Yankees in 2008, the only logical conclusion is to trade Joba Chamberlain for a pitcher capable of 200 innings while holding onto Hughes and Kennedy.
Discuss.
0 recs |
71 comments
Comments
Wow
In all seriousness, I wouldn't trade Joba or Hughes for anyone at this point.
I've made my argument about acquiring Santana pretty clear already so I don't have to rehash it again.
by anaconda on Oct 29, 2007 3:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Gotta keep Joba
by pfistyunc on Oct 29, 2007 3:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I totally agree
by SenorSwanky on Oct 29, 2007 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are right
by imyrick on Oct 30, 2007 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have heard
by marcbouch9 on Oct 30, 2007 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That would be nice
by imyrick on Oct 30, 2007 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Crede
by marcbouch9 on Oct 30, 2007 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Big
You make sense up to the point you say we should trade Joba!
With how quickly Joba became a fan fave, the Yankee brass would have to do something pretty spectacular to bounce back from such a move.
Won't Girardi use him for 300 innings no matter what Joba's experience is? Isn't that the story on Girardi?
Why not just wait and try to sign Santana next year?
Why not take the risk, which seems small, and see if Joba continues his success?
Rotation:Wang, Hughes, IPK, Mussina, Chamberlain, ?.
So what if we don't win it all next year. Let the Sox have some fun for a while!
by costa on Oct 29, 2007 3:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Let the Sox have some fun!
Seriously, the Yankees will not close Yankee Stadium with a whimper. Part of the reason trading Wang or Hughes for Santana doesn't make sense is it only replaces a solid 200 innings with a stellar 200.
If Pettitte retires we're going to need a big gun at the front end of this young rotation. Trading Joba is the only way to get that gun.
by jscape2000 on Oct 29, 2007 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The stadium
I wouldn't say you sound crazy because I don't think you do. Apologies if I inferred it.
by costa on Oct 29, 2007 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"let the sox have some fun"
sounds like a budding manny ramirez.
but i do agree with him that we have to hold onto Joba.. andI truly beleive the with the offseason the front office is having, letting Joba go is not high on their list.
santana could be had by mid-season for less, and next year for nothing (except a lot of $$).
by NumberSeven on Oct 29, 2007 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
by cotob2002 on Oct 29, 2007 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A-Rod?
by B Cap on Oct 30, 2007 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Keep Joba, several reasons.
If we resign Andy we have. Wang, Andy, Moose, Joba, Hughes, IPK and we still have prospects.
I think you are more pessimistic about Joba's innings than I am. I am sure that they will be careful with him, but not as careful as you suggest.
I love him for confidence and competitiveness.
I think our biggest pitching need is in the bullpen.
If we have to part with anyone I'd rather go with left hand hitting position players. Our lineup is out of balance and that is a real weakness.
Meanwhile you are right on target with wanting pitching not front line offense. Get relief or get starters and put some of the trinity in the pen.
Let's not forget to stock the bench this year.
by Cbeck3 on Oct 29, 2007 3:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I cannot believe this
I'm a huge Santana fan, but I can't help but point out that his slash stats have risen every year since 2004. That, and Joba is freakin' six or seven years younger.
If Joba stays healthy, he's our future ace. You don't trade that away.
Yanks and prospects
by PinstripePowerhouse on Oct 29, 2007 3:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
agree absolutely
NO.
Keep Joba.
With all the changes we need some electricity and someone the fans ADORE and that's Joba.
He's got them whaddyacallit? Intangibles. :)
by bxgrl1 on Oct 29, 2007 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Someone the fans adore?
By the way, does a player have intangibles just because we say he has intangibles? Yeesh....
by Willton on Oct 29, 2007 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
by pfistyunc on Oct 29, 2007 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Intangibles and Heart
You see a pattern?
You'd probably have to back to 1986 to find a team of "egotistical, mercenary douchebags" that won anything in baseball. It just doesn't work that way anymore.
by matthaggs on Oct 29, 2007 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So if a player is on a winning team,
By the way, what intangibles do these players have? How do they effect run scoring and run prevention? I only ask because, well, baseball is won by scoring more runs than the other guy. So how do intangibles help the team score more runs than the other guy?
You'd probably have to back to 1986 to find a team of "egotistical, mercenary douchebags" that won anything in baseball. It just doesn't work that way anymore.
Why not?
by Willton on Oct 29, 2007 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jeez
Guys that are good, talented players and do all of the right things, i.e. give themselves and their team every opportunity to win games - those guys tend to be on winning teams. There are exceptions both ways, but it sure seems to work out that way.
As for the 1986 thing, you will laugh, but there is something to this chemistry thing in baseball. Over 162 games, in front of the media scrutiny these guys are under today, I would think getting along with one another - in addition to talent obviously - would certainly aid a team's chances of winning. Why is that such a ridiculous notion for you to entertain?
Just look at the teams that have won since then. From the Twins to the Yankees to the (gulp) Red Sox, etc.
by matthaggs on Oct 30, 2007 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You didn't answer the question
I do watch games. What I don't do is read in some morality to them that does not exist.
Guys that are good, talented players and do all of the right things, i.e. give themselves and their team every opportunity to win games - those guys tend to be on winning teams. There are exceptions both ways, but it sure seems to work out that way.
That's not answering the question. What are "all the right things" and how do they "give themselves and their team every opportunity to win games"? What are these intangibles and what do they do to help a team win?
As for the 1986 thing, you will laugh, but there is something to this chemistry thing in baseball. Over 162 games, in front of the media scrutiny these guys are under today, I would think getting along with one another - in addition to talent obviously - would certainly aid a team's chances of winning. Why is that such a ridiculous notion for you to entertain?
I'm not saying that team chemistry is not a good thing. I'm sure that players do benefit from enjoying their coworkers. But when you consider that a baseball is largely an individualized sport, especially with regard to pitching and hitting, I find that team chemistry is not important.
Moreover, I'm of the belief that team chemistry is an effect of winning, not a cause of it. Players tend to be in good spirits when they are successful. Players don't tend to be successful merely because they are in good spirits.
by Willton on Oct 30, 2007 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Banging my head against the wall, but...
Perhaps intangibles is the wrong word, but finding star players willing/able to do all of these things well is hard. Teams that have more of these players win more games.
Supremely talented one-dimensional players like Manny are the exception, not the rule on winning teams.
by matthaggs on Oct 30, 2007 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong: Situational hitting is quantifiable.
If that's what you call intangibles (that which is inherently tangible), then I guess I'm right: true intangibles don't exist and don't matter.
Way to state a truism: finding star players is hard, and teams that have more star players than other teams tend to win more games. Gosh, really? Thanks, Buddha, that was very insightful.
by Willton on Oct 30, 2007 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
God
I am ending this conversation to preserve what is left of my mental health.
Fyi, baseball is played on field with human beings, not on a monitor loaded with numbers.
You should root for NASA instead of the Yankees.
by matthaggs on Oct 31, 2007 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I do root for NASA
Seriously though, scouting has value and the psychological analysis isn't something that shows up in numbers. But (good) numbers tell us truths when our eyes deceive us. And these guys have been playing baseball their entire lives, what degrees of seperation can intagiables provide that aren't already evident in the numbers?
by jscape2000 on Oct 31, 2007 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hear you
This dude Econo often sprays them around like he has lost control of a machine gun and just hopes to hit something. He is doing guys that use them correctly a disservice.
by matthaggs on Oct 31, 2007 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice hyperbole
by Willton on Oct 31, 2007 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
See Cano, Robinson
There are times when your eyes don't lie.
by matthaggs on Oct 31, 2007 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And how is that a reckless use of stats?
by Willton on Nov 1, 2007 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure
by pfistyunc on Nov 1, 2007 8:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because
And then you (It was a long time ago but I think it was you - if not I apologize) used the same rationale to show that Melky would turn out to be a better hitter than Cano.
by matthaggs on Nov 1, 2007 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And what happened to his numbers?
In fact, Cano was having a really rough year until mid-July, hitting only .269/.308/.417 through July 14. After that he took off, hitting .351/.406/.573 til the end of the season, which I thought was quite unexpected. Regardless, his averages at the end of the year did not match his rates from last year. So while you claim I'm being as reckless as a novice with an automatic weapon, you are way off. I don't think I was being irresponsible at all with my use of stats in predicting a drop off, especially when I ended up being right.
What I did not expect was a rise in walks from Cano. Usually hitters don't magically gain plate discipline and start walking more often in one season, especially when they walk as little as Cano did last year. So I don't think it was at all unreasonable to think that Cano's poor discipline would not improve this season. Certainly, I was wrong, but not unreasonable.
As for Melky, yeah, I ended up being wrong. But I had no reason to believe that Melky would actually be worse this year than he was last year, especially in the walks department. That came as a total surprise. That was a case of me being wrong, not irresponsible.
by Willton on Nov 1, 2007 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bad idea
Make no mistake, that is all you would get for him. You might be able to swing someone like Dontrelle Willis from FLA if you include some other non trinity prospects, but that hardly qualifies as a sure title clincher for you.
The problem with your thought is the typical NYY way of thinking that gets you in situations like this. You need to think you need to do everything to win it all next year. The NYY are not 1 piece away from a title. If they feel this kid is the future, you don't trade that unless it is to get you over the top or to get you a sure thing top level player. If they lose AROD they are not even a contender in their division, let alone the AL.
The NYY are OLD and falling apart. If your one single burning goal is to try to win a title in 2008, instead of building to be competitive in the long run, you go and pay what it takes to get Santana. He is a sure thing, prospects are not.
I realize you think your prospects are super duper special, but they aren't. They might be good, the might be great or they might flop. You don't know. You know what to expect from Santana. We will produce in 2008, the rooks may or may not. So what if you'll have to pay him 20M/year? You're the f'ing NYY what do you care?
The poor teams go to young players out of necessity, not because they are better.
by KevinV on Oct 29, 2007 4:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
so...
by stillmonster on Oct 29, 2007 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rental
But, if you could lock up Santana to a long term deal, I would advocate trading Joba and much more. You could replace Joba's production with a free agent. You can not to the same with Santana.
by KevinV on Oct 30, 2007 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two points
Average hitter: 30.6
Average pitcher: 31.4
Those ages are weighted by ABs and IP, so the pitcher age is going to drop a lot with full seasons from IPK and Hughes plus no inning to Roger.
Bos 30.1, 31.1; Cle 28.0, 29.0; LAA 28.5, 28.4.
I agree, the Yankees are the oldest of this year's AL playoff crop, but they are hardly ancient or falling apart. Despite a rash of hamstring injuries, only Giambi was hurt for a significant portion of the season.
2) Yes, I do think our prospects are super duper special. I know that not everyone agrees; that is precisely why I would trade Joba (if I decided the best course was to complete a trade). Of our 10 best prospects Joba is the only one with enough credibility for another GM to say "We made a good deal" to his fanbase.
This also addresses Powerhouse's response- I'm not advocating a trade, but if we decide a trade is the best way to go then it's Joba we should trade. If we're playing to win in 2009 we should keep all the pitchers. If we have to win in 2008 then we have to gamble on some trades.
by jscape2000 on Oct 29, 2007 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
noooooooooooooo
by bxgrl1 on Oct 29, 2007 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aww
I do think it's outside the box, but (again if) if we're going to go after a ring in 2008 we need to gamble.
From a baseball standpoint it makes perfect sense- but I think the consensus here (and in the tabloids) is that Joba is the untouchable one, even though he'll have to be handled with kid gloves for the next couple of seasons.
by jscape2000 on Oct 30, 2007 3:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Refining of my point
What I meant more precisely is that they are burdened by a bunch of veterans that are depleted, retiring or not contributing like they should. They are taking up roster space and salary that could be better used by new FA or young players.
Player, 2008 Playoff age, Salary, Comment
Damon, 35, 13M - Decent, but not as expected.
Mussina, 40, 11.5M - Mediocre at best.
Farnsworth, 32, 5.6M - Mediocre at best.
Giambi, 37, 21M - Disaster.
Pavano, 32, 11M - Complete disaster.
Thats 5 roster spots and 62.1M on not that much.
You also have older, but good players
Posada, 37, 15M+
Rivera, 39, 15M+
Petite, 36, 16M - Considering retirement
All of these guys are on the decline of their careers. They are getting worse, not better. On top of that you get the heightened injury concerns for older players.
Add on to that Jeter, Abreu and Matsui being 34 and you have an old team, especially the position players.
RE #2:
My point was you can't know how good they will be now. You can not count on them to get you to a title in 2008.
Pesonally I would write off 2008 championship wise if I were the NYY. If they lose their manager, best player and possibly some of their top veterans, they will probably not contend in 2008 at all.
I would hold on to the prospects unless it were be to get someone special, like Santana or Cabrera. And even then it would only be if I could lock in the new guy long term.
I think that most fanbases are never sold on selling their stars to the NYY. I wouldn't worry about the PR perception of the prospects. Their positive would be minimal compared to the negative of losing their proven star. Believe me, I know how much it sucks to have to trade away your stars. I know analytically it is better than just getting compensatory draft picks, but it sucks.
by KevinV on Oct 30, 2007 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I believe
by detroit yankee on Oct 30, 2007 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
by jscape2000 on Oct 30, 2007 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trades, etc.
Oh yeah, if you think Joba is hot shit, wait until you get a full season from Hughes; he is going to be a top-10 pitcher next year (along with Wang, again).
by strelitm on Oct 29, 2007 9:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree about Hughes
Donnie said he wasn't ready for the manager position yet. Did he say that because he thought that the Steins would rely on Joe to bring him along one more year and it would weigh in their decision to keep Joe? I don't know but I find it hard to believe that they didn't somehow take that into consideration. Giradi can be brilliant...can he manage the team? We shall see...
We've been eliminated the first round 3 years in a row. We were eliminated by our arch rivals in 2004 who have gone on to win TWO world series while we've won NONE. We lost the series in 2001 and 2003. We were eliminated by the Angels in 2002.
Maybe we do need to shake things up. Maybe we need a new dynamic and a new energy.
Did everyone want to go to spring training with the same team we've had this year? Do you just want to cherry pick who we keep and who we get rid of?
Our team has looked good on paper and on payroll but it hasn't PERFORMED as it should.
I was reading Purple Row during the Series and they did nothing but compare the Sox to the Yankees of old...and what they're right about is that the Yankees don't look like the Yankees, the winning formula Yankees and haven't for a long time.
Maybe we need to infuse this team with new blood, new spirits, new outlooks.
Yes, I know it could all fall flat, but maybe there's something to it. At least we can hope so.
I want Mo and Po and Andy to come back and take part in it, but I'm not thinking anything is necessarily good or bad for the team. Unless we lose Hughes or Joba, I'm thinking we might put this thing back on track.
Call me Pollyanna.
by bxgrl1 on Oct 29, 2007 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pollyanna,
The reality is that at their age, Mo and Po would have been foolish to expect they would've been renewed before the season. And Joe wasn't going to get renewed at that point either.
I wish they'd treated Joe with more respect and made a bigger effort to bring him around to a contract that was really not that awful. Otherwise, A-Rod is a clod.
Now if the FO screws up Mo, Po & Andy and starts making some dumb trades, we'll revisit. But at this point, the FO is on target. Girardi v Mattingly is a toss-up, and I can come around to Little Joe. So let's see.
by LateInningRelief on Oct 29, 2007 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mattingly
by flipster on Oct 30, 2007 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
JOBA
by miracle96 on Oct 30, 2007 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was a knee problem
by pfistyunc on Oct 30, 2007 8:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not the Yanks
by miracle96 on Oct 31, 2007 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't trade Joba
And why go after someone like Santana who will cost us so much? And do you really think we could get him and get a contract extension at the same time?
Why not instead pursue Erik Bedard (strikeout manic), Aaron Harang, Scott Kazmir (another KO guy, if I'm not mistaken), Matt Cain, or Tom Gorzelanny? I'd love to have Bedard or Kazmir as a Yankee. I think they'd fit and replace Pettitte well. It'd even be worth pursuing them if Pettitte does stay around, just in case one of our starters goes down with an injury, as Pettitte may be prone to do. In that case, we can then move up IPK or Moose from long relief to a starter rather than having to promote someone like Clippard or DeSalvo automatically.
by SenorSwanky on Oct 29, 2007 9:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Here's why
by Willton on Oct 29, 2007 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually...
As far as the others, you might be right. But it's worth exploring.
by SenorSwanky on Oct 29, 2007 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trades, etc.
Oh yeah, if you think Joba is hot shit, wait until you get a full season from Hughes; he is going to be a top-10 pitcher next year (along with Wang, again).
by strelitm on Oct 29, 2007 9:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Slightly off topic
by pfistyunc on Oct 29, 2007 9:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah,
by LateInningRelief on Oct 29, 2007 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather...
by SenorSwanky on Oct 29, 2007 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His contrasting Jeter and A-Rod
by docgonzo on Oct 29, 2007 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that was my response
by bxgrl1 on Oct 30, 2007 7:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A Rod's Problem
I think that he realized even with the amazing year that he had this year. That the fans still loved Jeter, Torre and the rest of the guys just and as much or more than him. And he could not stand it.
by imyrick on Oct 30, 2007 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah!
by Willton on Oct 29, 2007 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Remind me...
by SenorSwanky on Oct 30, 2007 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I sooo agree about Hank
by John Amato on Oct 30, 2007 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trading Joba =
Key reasoning NOT to trade him (of any of their current prospects): He is the only pitcher that has the ability to fill 3 separate roles: starter, reliever, closer; and he has the weapons to succeed in any of those roles. Now, he needs experience and innings.
Given the state of the pitching staff just adding Santana doesn't fix that problem alone. And trading away a kid who could be equally successful over the next 5-7 years (at a minimum) is repeating historical mistakes.
Santana is no doubt a terrific pitcher. But I'd rather win him in FA, if at all, and see the young pitchers rule 2008. They were much more fun to watch during the season/playoffs than any other player/s (midges notwithstanding).
And realistically, from a position perspective, we serious issues: 1B, 3B, RF (if Abreu doesn't come back), LF (assuming Matsui moves to DH role), CF (Melky is not the everyday CF of the future), and C (if Posada does not resign)...
If anything, the starting pitching staff for next year at least has the potential to be stable.
Given a rotation of:
Hughes
Joba
Wang
IPK
Moose/or another cheap acquisition
Pettitte (if he stays)
I think that would be fun to watch for a full season.
The rest of the positions are not stable, and if I recall correctly, we do not have the Farm system yet stocked there to bring up anyone -- do we?
So exchanging pitching for pitching is not in the best long term interests when the pitcher we give up in this scenario has long term potential and the team has so many significant holes to fill.
by detroit yankee on Oct 30, 2007 10:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Risk
Santana is a proven ace #1 starter. He is still fairly young and will perform for years to come.
Joba has potential, but what if he flounders as a starter and a closer, but becomes an ace middle reliever. Is that more valuable that a #1 starter?
Even if he becomes a shut down closer, which he won't until Rivera leaves, is that more valuable than a #1 ace starter? I don't think so.
But I agree that pitching isn't your #1 long term worry. You need to get younger at just about every position.
by KevinV on Oct 30, 2007 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not disagreeing, necessarily
Yanks and prospects
by PinstripePowerhouse on Oct 30, 2007 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Risk"
Santana does not have the same flexibility. He is clearly an top starting pitcher. But once again we come back to the issue of do you trade away a what-might-have-been for a what-might-be?
I still think the yankees would be wise to keep Joba. And I suspect they will.
by detroit yankee on Oct 30, 2007 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Risk vs. Reward
I think it is likely that the NYY retain Joba too. But if they get the chance to package Joba for Santana, they should jump on that before the Twins can rethink it.
by KevinV on Nov 1, 2007 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One bad thing
by KevinV on Oct 30, 2007 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
















