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BP's Joe Sheehan Doesn't Like Johnson Trade

For those of you who don't know, Baseball Prospectus is website that is probably at the forefront of statistical baseball analysis. Joe Sheehan is an excellent writer for BP, as well as an avid Yankee fan. He is quite good at analyzing baseball data, although not as good as his fellow BP staffmates Clay Davenport or Nate Silver, and he knows the Yankees organization backwards and forwards. So when he doesn't like a move made by the Yankees, it's usually for good reason.

It's not easy to make a deal with the Diamondbacks and not come out of it with some upside, but that's what the Yankees have done. They've added to their stash of college-draftee pitchers--remember, they took Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain in last year's draft--who don't project as stars, and added a utility-infield prospect and some relief help.

This wasn't even the best package of guys you've never heard of; the Yankees, staring at a hole at first base, would have been better off working Scott Hairston, Chris Carter or Brian Barden into this deal than taking Vizcaino or Gonzalez. The Diamondbacks have no room for any of them, they can all hit and all are better short-term fixes than Rule 5 pick Josh Phelps.

This deal is a good win for the Diamondbacks, who are closer to contention in the NL West than most people realize. By adding a good starting pitcher--remember, PECOTA projects Johnson to have a 3.52 ERA this season--in exchange for four guys they'll never miss and some cash, they've improved the 2007 team for, essentially, nothing. They didn't trade any of their top ten prospects, not even guys down the list like Micah Owings or Dustin Nippert. This deal closes the gap between them and the Padres and Dodgers, and pretty much ensures at least a three-team race in the West.

This is what Pfisty meant by trading Johnson "for pennies on the dollar." As much as we may not like Johnson, we'll likely miss his production.

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My thoughts exactly
We got shit for him and now have a huge hole in our rotation.
Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Jan 10, 2007 6:09 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

PECOTA
It predicted a similar number for Johnson's 2006 ERA.
Off the Facade
An interesting alternative to the mainstream.

by PinstripePowerhouse on Jan 10, 2007 6:27 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Again, What?
Besides the innings Randy brought nothing to the Yankees that they will miss next year. There are many ways to replace 200 innings and maintain a era near Randy's for those 200 innings.

The deal may be a bad deal in that the Yankees maybe didn't get the highest quality players in return.

But just getting rid of Randy and the remainder of his salary is a plus.

Sheehan's comments are solely based on projected stats, and doesn't take in account the following:

1 Randy hated playing in NY and that probably negatively affected his performance. It's pretty obvious that Randy requested this trade if not demanded it. (I understand he had a recent death in his family and that made NY even more unbearable for him.)

2 Randy had problems with many of his teammates; he couldn't work well w/ Jorge, Klapsich recounted a story last week about Randy getting mad at Johnny D for rallying the players in the locker room.

3 Randy pitched his worse in the biggest games (the playoffs and against the AL East.

4 Randy lied about his health like Kevin Brown. Randy is now saying that his back was a problem for all of last season.

What are the good qualities Randy broght to the Yankees that will be missed?

by collink on Jan 10, 2007 7:53 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

If I remember correctly
He also had the highest run support on the staff...around 6 rpg? That sound right?

Of course, they needed all those runs when he was pitching.

by detroit yankee on Jan 10, 2007 8:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

7 plus last season
Randy had the highest run support in the league last year.

by collink on Jan 10, 2007 8:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Run support?
What does that have to do with anything? I could give a shit about the wins and losses he had. They speak nothing of his ability. His innings pitched, strikeout rate and walk rate, however, do.

Last year's ERA is out of line with his peripherals. Randy will bounce back next season to be at the very least an average pitcher.

by Willton on Jan 10, 2007 8:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You know what?
Someone could be working his way back onto the island!!
Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Jan 10, 2007 8:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think
it's really tough to predict how he'll pitch. He is 43 and coming off back surgery. He could be better, he could be the same, he could be washed up. Nobody will know until he takes the mound again. I think the jury's out.

by flipster on Jan 10, 2007 9:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Using that logic, just imagine
how great he will be when he turns 50.
Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier. The cigars taste better. The trees are greener. --Billy Martin

by garp on Jan 10, 2007 10:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I have
agreed before that it is important to replace the 200 innings, 175K's, etc.  But the more I think about it, it wasn't written in stone either that Unit was going to give the Yanks that this upcoming season anyway coming off the back surgery.  Some reports project he won't be fully ready to go till May or June.  Not sure how true those are.
Great Success!

by ReLaunch on Jan 11, 2007 6:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Even if
all of those things were true (which they are not), that still doesn't change the fact that our haul in this deal was less than impressive.
Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Jan 10, 2007 8:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Less than impressive?
More like downright worthless.

The only guy of value is Vizcaino, and he or a pitcher like him could have been had for a lot less.

by Willton on Jan 10, 2007 8:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not true, really
what's not true.

Randy didn't like pitcing to Jorge for most of his time with the Yankees, that's why he pitche to Flash and Stinnett. I'll find the Klapsich article about Randy and Johnny.

Randy didn't like NY, and his brother died last month making it bigger priority for him to be close to home.

Which big game did Randy pitch well in?

Didn't Randy keep saying he was fine last season, now he's saying he wasnt'.

And again I'll what were the positive he brought to the Yankees, besides innings pitched?

by collink on Jan 10, 2007 8:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Other positives
Strikeouts and walks allowed.

by Willton on Jan 10, 2007 8:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Randy wasn't a good strikeout pitcher in 06
Randy's strikeout total was close to his total runs allowed, that's a bad sign for a strikeout pitcher.

When a pitcher is a good strikeout pitcher like Randy used to be, that pitcher's strikeout total will double or triple his run total.

Last season Randy 170+ strikeouts and 120+ runs allowed. In his best seasons he had 300 plus strikeout and maybe 100 total runs allowed. Look at Randy's career stats.

Check out Santana las year, 245 strikeouts and 79 runs allowed. That's a good strikeout pitcher.

by collink on Jan 11, 2007 12:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll try again
Reading my post really would have helped. Even conceding that everything you said about the Unit is true, that doesn't change the fact that we got pennies on the dollar in return.
Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Jan 10, 2007 8:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Read my post again too
I've said this is a good thing not because what the Yankees got in return but for what they got rid of.

I'd say the move would be good even if they had just waived Randy.

Randy was an underachieving, complaining, sourpuss who pitched his worst when the Yankees were relying on him the most.

by collink on Jan 11, 2007 12:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No such thing as addition by subtraction
Despite what he was like off the field, he provided value on the field. By removing him, you remove the value he provided. So when the team decides to get rid of him, they should receive equal value back in order to compensate for his loss. So while you may think RJ only provided those 200 major league innings, the Yankees should still receive the reasonable equivalent of those 200 innings back.

by Willton on Jan 11, 2007 1:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
Very well said. Waiving him is a comical suggestion, but whatever one needs to do to justify the pathetic return we got in the trade is fine by me.
Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Jan 11, 2007 1:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not justifying the return
I don't think the positive from this move is what they got in return. No way can you say the Yankees got something of worth in return.

I'm saying that Randy's contribution to the team was so average that his contribution can be replaced in many other ways.

by collink on Jan 11, 2007 1:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes but
I hated Randy, are you actually taking that into account when responding to my posts?

And it's not like the Yankees are not going to fill his spot. I think it will be easy for the Yankees to find a starter that can win 15 games while recieving the massive run support that Randy recieved.

But I do agree with you and Pfistyunc that what they got in return on this trade was nothing special.

by collink on Jan 11, 2007 1:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We hated him too
But Cashman is paid to think with his head and not his heart. If you had a 20K car that you hated, you wouldn't sell it for 8k and then be pleased that you were able to get rid of it. No one here is saying that Unit was a great player who shouldn't have been traded. I just don't think the situation was such that Cashman was forced to trade him for jack shit in return.
Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Jan 11, 2007 1:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Randy was demanding a trade
I think we will eventually find out that Randy did in fact make demands or a strongly worded request to be traded.

I was in Arizona during the holidays, and when the story broke there the local media made it sound like Randy and his agents approached the D-Backs first.

I think Randy engineered the whole move, which then puts Cashman and distinct disadvantage.

by collink on Jan 11, 2007 1:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Request vs. demand
I have no doubt he requested a trade. That my friend is light years from demanding one. We have absolutely no indication that he refused to the return to the team, etc. In fact, Cashman said exactly the opposite during his press conference.
Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Jan 11, 2007 1:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lies
We know Randy is a liar. I fully expect that Cashman tells out and out lies when speaking to the press about the details of trades.

by collink on Jan 11, 2007 1:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Why?
Under your scenario, Cashman's hand was forced by Unit, thereby justifying why he took pennies on the dollar from Arizona. If you were Cashman, wouldn't you make sure than an anonymous "source close to the organization" made that known so that you didn't look so bad? For all of the scores of media that cover the Yankees on a daily basis, there has not even been the slightest hint that Randy DEMANDED a trade. He requested one.
Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Jan 11, 2007 1:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not entirely true
To some extent he's paid to think like a fan.  Don't forget that this is a business.  If the average fan hates RJ and turn off the tv when he pitches he's costing you a lot more than $16million.  In which case addition (to your bottom line) by subtraction really does exist.

by dewadewa on Jan 11, 2007 3:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You can really tell the fans disgust
by the record attendance and revenues. Apparently they didn't hate him enough to stop coming to the park or watching TV like you implied.
Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Jan 11, 2007 4:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You're saying
you don't think the Yankees could be more popular or profitable?  Cashman has replaced RJ and Wright with Pettite and Igawa.  Two unpopular and expensive players who perhaps weren't eroding revenue but certainly weren't above average contributors for a former hero and a Japanese hero, both of whom should be able to sell more jersey's and advertising.  From a baseball perspective it's probably a wash but from a business perspective it's brilliant.

by dewadewa on Jan 11, 2007 6:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yanks revenues
I think their revenues are pretty maxed out, especially with already having Matsui, so I don't think that adding Igawa will significantly increase anything. They already sell out every game, sell the most merchandise and have very high TV ratings. The decision to bring back Pettitte was like Walmart opening another store: people were buying a ton of the Yankee product before Andy returned.
Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Jan 11, 2007 7:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

TV Ratings?
Not only do they have high TV ratings, they own the freakin' channel on which the games are televised. All those ads you see between innings? Right in George's pocket.
Off the Facade
An interesting alternative to the mainstream.

by PinstripePowerhouse on Jan 11, 2007 8:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

All I'm saying...
...is that I've never once heard anybody, in any business say "We're making just the right amount of money".  You may feel there are no opportunities to make more, but that doesn't mean they're going to stop looking.  Personally I don't think the Japan angle is tapped out...sure they have their own American tv station, but what about Japanese tv rights and advertising.  As for Pettite, he'll sell more jerseys and he costs $3million less...good deal.

by dewadewa on Jan 12, 2007 7:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Understood
I don't think that we are saying the Yankees are backing away from the buffet table here. We are just saying that significantly increasing revenues is hard for a cash cow like the Yankees. You can get much more blood from that stone. Secondly, we are also saying that the Igawa signing will not increase revenues enough to justify the 9M/year cost
Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Jan 12, 2007 8:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

9 million
I know we've had what he really costs out on other threads,.  But I've got to say it's starting to bug me.  Yes, it averages out if you just divide the number, but it is more complicated than that.  
  1. We pay $.50 on the dollar, so his salary is actually 6 million after luxury taxes.
  2. The posting fee is not in the luxury tax, so for payroll purposes it doesn't count.
  3. I've never read anywhere that the mosting fee is paid in installments.  So it's not something that will linger and effect the team's payroll next season (dividing it out over his entire contract, as you imply, would).
Have faith in the Yankees my son. Think of the great DiMaggio.

by jscape2000 on Jan 12, 2007 12:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Feel free to explain to me
How it is not going to cost the Yankees 46M over the next five years. Do they have some coupon for 50% off posting fees or something? I am sorry that math bugs you, but 46M is 46M any way you slice it. In fact, 46M is a conservative figure in light of the luxury tax.
Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Jan 12, 2007 1:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

46=46
However, it's 30 million this year, and 4 million in subsequent years.  This will allow us great flexibility in '08-'11 than is implied in your 9.2 million dollar per year figure.
That's all.
Have faith in the Yankees my son. Think of the great DiMaggio.

by jscape2000 on Jan 12, 2007 2:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I suppose
But my beef all along is that Cashman is spending an AVERAGE of 9M/year on a pitcher who I think will suck. If they paid 45M of it today and spread the other 1M out over five years, it would still be just as stupid.
Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Jan 12, 2007 2:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe
but I think it's better to spend more money while we have room in the budget, so that there's more there next year when.  What we don't spend just falls into Steinbrenner & Co.'s pocket.
Have faith in the Yankees my son. Think of the great DiMaggio.

by jscape2000 on Jan 12, 2007 2:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

innings per start
With a manager who has no clue how to operate a bullpen it is vital that our starters can give us innings each start. Only Wang had more innings per start than Johnson. So not only to we lose 205 innings we force our bullpen to throw more innings. Yeah, that sounds like a good plan.

Saving Johnson's salary only means something if they reinvest the money. If they just sit on it then who cares?

Until and unless Cashman brings in a top starter this trade sucks.

by tiyuri on Jan 10, 2007 9:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

"No clue" really?
Why does Torre have no clue how to manage a bullpen? That's a pretty strong statement.

Proctor, Quantril, Sturtze, Villone are fodder. Torre squeezes everything he can out of middle relievers and then tosses them aside. That may not be nice, but why is that not an effective managerial decision?

Money wise the Yankees can afford this strategy, so it doesn't really hurt their roster when a guy like Sturtze goes down.

Record wise the Yankees do pretty well every season in having a low blown save percentage. They don't lose many games in the late innings usually.

So what exactly is the negative in Torre's bullpen strategy. Torre's bullpen use may not be a positive but I don't think you could say it cost the Yankees many games. I'd say it's a wash at worst.

by collink on Jan 11, 2007 1:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The Yanks' rotation is in better shape.....
going into this season than last season.  

Let's not forget that Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon were both part of their plans going into the 2006 regular season and we didn't know what to expect from Wang because of his elbow injury and arm problems during the 2005 season.

2006:

Wang
Moose
Johnson
Pavano
Wright
Small
Chacon

2007:

Wang
Moose
Pettitte
Karstens
Rasner
Pavano
Hughes (will most likely be called up in June or July)

I'll take the prospective 2007 rotation over the 2006 rotation anyday.

by anaconda on Jan 10, 2007 8:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

This current roster will not be the same team....
that will take the field in August and the pennant race into October.

Cashman is going to make a deal sooner or later with all of the young power arms he is stockpiling.

Several teams will probably start to unload when they fall out of the race and Cash will pounce on that.

It's the Yankees way, so I wouldn't be too concerned about their 2007 rotation in January.

by anaconda on Jan 10, 2007 8:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's the old Yankee way
I agree, but Cashman has completely flipped the script on us. Now he is dumping veterans to reload the farm system, so I don't know what to expect. Needless to say, my confidence in his prospect of success is minimal.
Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Jan 10, 2007 8:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It only takes a couple of those young guys...
from that long list of young arms to work out for these moves to be considered good ones by Cashman.

by anaconda on Jan 10, 2007 9:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That is true
But you have to break the moves down individually. The Wright move was almost too small to matter; Sheff trade was great and the Unit trade was terrible in terms of what the Yanks got in return. The Cairo/Minkie/Igawa troika is just laughable though.
Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Jan 10, 2007 9:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

2007
Sorry, but that comparison is fucking worthless because it really has nothing to do with the Unit since we aren't replacing him in the rotation with anyone we received in the trade. Your projected 2007 rotation with Unit instead of Pavano makes the most sense.

Also, you forgot to mention that our brilliant GM has gave Igawa one of those rotation spots.

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Jan 10, 2007 8:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Be nice....
Your disagreement with my comparison doesn't exactly make it worthless.  

Perhaps you should just assassinate Cashman and get it over with.  

If you could fire Cashman, who would you hire to replace him?

I know you don't like him, but he's not going anywhere.  The Boss gave him total control of the daily operations for a reason -- he trusts Cashman.

The Boss wouldn't have given him that much power within the organization if he didn't think he was doing a good job.

I don't like several moves he's made over the years, but the guy has made a lot of good moves to help this team as well and we shouldn't just focus on the bad ones.

He's certainly not perfect, but he's still one of the top 5 - 7 GMs in MLB.

by anaconda on Jan 10, 2007 8:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah sorry
Dook basketball is on TV right now, so I am a little angry. Although it was awesome to watch those fuckers lose. Go Heels.
Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Jan 10, 2007 9:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We agree on that....
I loathe Duke and everything about them.

I'm a Michigan fan, but I haven't had anything to cheer about in regards to CBB since Glen Rice and a few years later with Webber, Rose, and the rest of the Fab Five.

by anaconda on Jan 10, 2007 9:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Kinda' agree
I would have liked to get one of their top guys--especially Micah Owings, but I am thrilled he's gone. He was a bad fit, and brought a surly influence that we simply don't need from a broken down 6-10" pitching legend--three years past his prime.

by Ronster22 on Jan 11, 2007 12:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Background on the trade from Buster Olney
"There was some surprise that the Yankees didn't land pitching prospect Dustin Nippert in their Randy Johnson trade talks with the Arizona Diamondbacks. But the Yankees were guided in their conversations by Kendall Carter, the former national scouting coordinator for the D-Backs; the Yankees just hired Carter last fall as a crosschecker, and based on his inside knowledge of the Arizona system, he recommended that the Yankees pursue Ross Ohlendorf, the sinkerballer who became the centerpiece of the deal. Executives with rival teams say that Nippert's stock has actually fallen in recent months, and say that at a time when organizations are hoarding their best pitching prospects, they have made it known they are willing to swap Nippert in the right deal."
Scholars see baseball as a force for passing along the essential value of democracy. Baseball reveals significant themes like class and race.

by sanchez96 on Jan 11, 2007 1:48 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Carter has tunnel vision
Apparently Carter didn't see the wealthy of hitting prospects the D'Backs have, like the aforementioned Chris Carter and Scott Hairston.

by Willton on Jan 12, 2007 1:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Is that it?
Or did Cashman want pitching?
Scholars see baseball as a force for passing along the essential value of democracy. Baseball reveals significant themes like class and race.

by sanchez96 on Jan 12, 2007 2:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If he did,
Cashman likely went looking in the wrong organization to find it. AZ is loaded with hitting talent, both in the majors and minors, yet they lack pitching depth. Considering how weak their rotation is (Webb is excellent, but the rest is blah), I imagine they'd prefer to hold onto what little minor league pitching prospects they have in the hopes that they can use them to replace what's in the majors now.

by Willton on Jan 12, 2007 3:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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