BP's Joe Sheehan Doesn't Like Johnson Trade
For those of you who don't know, Baseball Prospectus is website that is probably at the forefront of statistical baseball analysis. Joe Sheehan is an excellent writer for BP, as well as an avid Yankee fan. He is quite good at analyzing baseball data, although not as good as his fellow BP staffmates Clay Davenport or Nate Silver, and he knows the Yankees organization backwards and forwards. So when he doesn't like a move made by the Yankees, it's usually for good reason.
It's not easy to make a deal with the Diamondbacks and not come out of it with some upside, but that's what the Yankees have done. They've added to their stash of college-draftee pitchers--remember, they took Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain in last year's draft--who don't project as stars, and added a utility-infield prospect and some relief help.This wasn't even the best package of guys you've never heard of; the Yankees, staring at a hole at first base, would have been better off working Scott Hairston, Chris Carter or Brian Barden into this deal than taking Vizcaino or Gonzalez. The Diamondbacks have no room for any of them, they can all hit and all are better short-term fixes than Rule 5 pick Josh Phelps.
This deal is a good win for the Diamondbacks, who are closer to contention in the NL West than most people realize. By adding a good starting pitcher--remember, PECOTA projects Johnson to have a 3.52 ERA this season--in exchange for four guys they'll never miss and some cash, they've improved the 2007 team for, essentially, nothing. They didn't trade any of their top ten prospects, not even guys down the list like Micah Owings or Dustin Nippert. This deal closes the gap between them and the Padres and Dodgers, and pretty much ensures at least a three-team race in the West.
This is what Pfisty meant by trading Johnson "for pennies on the dollar." As much as we may not like Johnson, we'll likely miss his production.
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My thoughts exactly
by pfistyunc on Jan 10, 2007 6:09 PM EST 0 recs
PECOTA
An interesting alternative to the mainstream.
by PinstripePowerhouse on Jan 10, 2007 6:27 PM EST 0 recs
Again, What?
The deal may be a bad deal in that the Yankees maybe didn't get the highest quality players in return.
But just getting rid of Randy and the remainder of his salary is a plus.
Sheehan's comments are solely based on projected stats, and doesn't take in account the following:
1 Randy hated playing in NY and that probably negatively affected his performance. It's pretty obvious that Randy requested this trade if not demanded it. (I understand he had a recent death in his family and that made NY even more unbearable for him.)
2 Randy had problems with many of his teammates; he couldn't work well w/ Jorge, Klapsich recounted a story last week about Randy getting mad at Johnny D for rallying the players in the locker room.
3 Randy pitched his worse in the biggest games (the playoffs and against the AL East.
4 Randy lied about his health like Kevin Brown. Randy is now saying that his back was a problem for all of last season.
What are the good qualities Randy broght to the Yankees that will be missed?
by collink on Jan 10, 2007 7:53 PM EST 0 recs
If I remember correctly
Of course, they needed all those runs when he was pitching.
by detroit yankee on
Jan 10, 2007 8:18 PM EST
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7 plus last season
by collink on
Jan 10, 2007 8:40 PM EST
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Run support?
Last year's ERA is out of line with his peripherals. Randy will bounce back next season to be at the very least an average pitcher.
by Willton on
Jan 10, 2007 8:52 PM EST
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You know what?
by pfistyunc on
Jan 10, 2007 8:58 PM EST
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I think
by flipster on
Jan 10, 2007 9:32 PM EST
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Using that logic, just imagine
by garp on
Jan 10, 2007 10:36 PM EST
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I have
by ReLaunch on
Jan 11, 2007 6:50 AM EST
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Even if
by pfistyunc on
Jan 10, 2007 8:23 PM EST
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Less than impressive?
The only guy of value is Vizcaino, and he or a pitcher like him could have been had for a lot less.
by Willton on
Jan 10, 2007 8:30 PM EST
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Not true, really
Randy didn't like pitcing to Jorge for most of his time with the Yankees, that's why he pitche to Flash and Stinnett. I'll find the Klapsich article about Randy and Johnny.
Randy didn't like NY, and his brother died last month making it bigger priority for him to be close to home.
Which big game did Randy pitch well in?
Didn't Randy keep saying he was fine last season, now he's saying he wasnt'.
And again I'll what were the positive he brought to the Yankees, besides innings pitched?
by collink on
Jan 10, 2007 8:45 PM EST
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Randy wasn't a good strikeout pitcher in 06
When a pitcher is a good strikeout pitcher like Randy used to be, that pitcher's strikeout total will double or triple his run total.
Last season Randy 170+ strikeouts and 120+ runs allowed. In his best seasons he had 300 plus strikeout and maybe 100 total runs allowed. Look at Randy's career stats.
Check out Santana las year, 245 strikeouts and 79 runs allowed. That's a good strikeout pitcher.
by collink on
Jan 11, 2007 12:53 PM EST
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I'll try again
by pfistyunc on
Jan 10, 2007 8:54 PM EST
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Read my post again too
I'd say the move would be good even if they had just waived Randy.
Randy was an underachieving, complaining, sourpuss who pitched his worst when the Yankees were relying on him the most.
by collink on
Jan 11, 2007 12:56 PM EST
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No such thing as addition by subtraction
by Willton on
Jan 11, 2007 1:15 PM EST
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Agreed
by pfistyunc on
Jan 11, 2007 1:19 PM EST
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I'm not justifying the return
I'm saying that Randy's contribution to the team was so average that his contribution can be replaced in many other ways.
by collink on
Jan 11, 2007 1:22 PM EST
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Yes but
And it's not like the Yankees are not going to fill his spot. I think it will be easy for the Yankees to find a starter that can win 15 games while recieving the massive run support that Randy recieved.
But I do agree with you and Pfistyunc that what they got in return on this trade was nothing special.
by collink on
Jan 11, 2007 1:19 PM EST
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We hated him too
by pfistyunc on
Jan 11, 2007 1:23 PM EST
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Randy was demanding a trade
I was in Arizona during the holidays, and when the story broke there the local media made it sound like Randy and his agents approached the D-Backs first.
I think Randy engineered the whole move, which then puts Cashman and distinct disadvantage.
by collink on
Jan 11, 2007 1:28 PM EST
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Request vs. demand
by pfistyunc on
Jan 11, 2007 1:34 PM EST
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Lies
by collink on
Jan 11, 2007 1:39 PM EST
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Why?
by pfistyunc on
Jan 11, 2007 1:50 PM EST
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Not entirely true
by dewadewa on
Jan 11, 2007 3:55 PM EST
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You can really tell the fans disgust
by pfistyunc on
Jan 11, 2007 4:32 PM EST
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You're saying
by dewadewa on
Jan 11, 2007 6:17 PM EST
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Yanks revenues
by pfistyunc on
Jan 11, 2007 7:15 PM EST
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TV Ratings?
An interesting alternative to the mainstream.
by PinstripePowerhouse on
Jan 11, 2007 8:04 PM EST
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All I'm saying...
by dewadewa on
Jan 12, 2007 7:24 AM EST
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Understood
by pfistyunc on
Jan 12, 2007 8:55 AM EST
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9 million
- We pay $.50 on the dollar, so his salary is actually 6 million after luxury taxes.
- The posting fee is not in the luxury tax, so for payroll purposes it doesn't count.
- I've never read anywhere that the mosting fee is paid in installments. So it's not something that will linger and effect the team's payroll next season (dividing it out over his entire contract, as you imply, would).
by jscape2000 on
Jan 12, 2007 12:12 PM EST
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Feel free to explain to me
by pfistyunc on
Jan 12, 2007 1:27 PM EST
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46=46
That's all.
by jscape2000 on
Jan 12, 2007 2:11 PM EST
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I suppose
by pfistyunc on
Jan 12, 2007 2:13 PM EST
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Maybe
by jscape2000 on
Jan 12, 2007 2:16 PM EST
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innings per start
Saving Johnson's salary only means something if they reinvest the money. If they just sit on it then who cares?
Until and unless Cashman brings in a top starter this trade sucks.
by tiyuri on
Jan 10, 2007 9:05 PM EST
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"No clue" really?
Proctor, Quantril, Sturtze, Villone are fodder. Torre squeezes everything he can out of middle relievers and then tosses them aside. That may not be nice, but why is that not an effective managerial decision?
Money wise the Yankees can afford this strategy, so it doesn't really hurt their roster when a guy like Sturtze goes down.
Record wise the Yankees do pretty well every season in having a low blown save percentage. They don't lose many games in the late innings usually.
So what exactly is the negative in Torre's bullpen strategy. Torre's bullpen use may not be a positive but I don't think you could say it cost the Yankees many games. I'd say it's a wash at worst.
by collink on
Jan 11, 2007 1:05 PM EST
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The Yanks' rotation is in better shape.....
Let's not forget that Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon were both part of their plans going into the 2006 regular season and we didn't know what to expect from Wang because of his elbow injury and arm problems during the 2005 season.
2006:
Wang
Moose
Johnson
Pavano
Wright
Small
Chacon
2007:
Wang
Moose
Pettitte
Karstens
Rasner
Pavano
Hughes (will most likely be called up in June or July)
I'll take the prospective 2007 rotation over the 2006 rotation anyday.
by anaconda on Jan 10, 2007 8:19 PM EST 0 recs
And it would be in better shape
by Willton on
Jan 10, 2007 8:31 PM EST
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This current roster will not be the same team....
Cashman is going to make a deal sooner or later with all of the young power arms he is stockpiling.
Several teams will probably start to unload when they fall out of the race and Cash will pounce on that.
It's the Yankees way, so I wouldn't be too concerned about their 2007 rotation in January.
by anaconda on
Jan 10, 2007 8:42 PM EST
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That's the old Yankee way
by pfistyunc on
Jan 10, 2007 8:45 PM EST
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It only takes a couple of those young guys...
by anaconda on
Jan 10, 2007 9:02 PM EST
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That is true
by pfistyunc on
Jan 10, 2007 9:19 PM EST
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2007
Also, you forgot to mention that our brilliant GM has gave Igawa one of those rotation spots.
by pfistyunc on
Jan 10, 2007 8:42 PM EST
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Be nice....
Perhaps you should just assassinate Cashman and get it over with.
If you could fire Cashman, who would you hire to replace him?
I know you don't like him, but he's not going anywhere. The Boss gave him total control of the daily operations for a reason -- he trusts Cashman.
The Boss wouldn't have given him that much power within the organization if he didn't think he was doing a good job.
I don't like several moves he's made over the years, but the guy has made a lot of good moves to help this team as well and we shouldn't just focus on the bad ones.
He's certainly not perfect, but he's still one of the top 5 - 7 GMs in MLB.
by anaconda on
Jan 10, 2007 8:57 PM EST
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Yeah sorry
by pfistyunc on
Jan 10, 2007 9:17 PM EST
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We agree on that....
I'm a Michigan fan, but I haven't had anything to cheer about in regards to CBB since Glen Rice and a few years later with Webber, Rose, and the rest of the Fab Five.
by anaconda on
Jan 10, 2007 9:37 PM EST
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Kinda' agree
by Ronster22 on Jan 11, 2007 12:12 PM EST 0 recs
Background on the trade from Buster Olney
by sanchez96 on Jan 11, 2007 1:48 PM EST 0 recs
Carter has tunnel vision
by Willton on
Jan 12, 2007 1:35 PM EST
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Is that it?
by sanchez96 on
Jan 12, 2007 2:28 PM EST
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If he did,
by Willton on
Jan 12, 2007 3:12 PM EST
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